September brought a clear signal for the Suez Canal: 27% of Asia-Europe capacity went back to using it instead of routing around Africa, according to Sea-Intelligence’s latest Sunday Spotlight report. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC and CMA CGM have already reactivated several of their main services on the route. The result already shows in hard numbers: Indian cargo arriving at the Port of Savannah, in the United States, now takes 10 to 14 days less than it did a few months ago.
That 27% doesn’t tell the whole story, though. Behind the average is a race with some clear winners and others still waiting their turn.
Why the return to the Suez Canal isn’t even across the board
The Mediterranean is leading the return by a wide margin: 57% of its scheduled capacity already sails through the Red Sea. Ships departing from northern Europe are only at 27%. The reason isn’t commercial but operational: carriers benefit from repositioning vessels returning from the Mediterranean first, which recovers capacity in Asia faster without yet putting their main northern European services at risk.
Direction of travel matters too. On the Asia-to-Europe leg, the share moving through Suez stayed flat at 13% to 25%, essentially unchanged from August. In the opposite direction, from Europe to Asia, it climbed from a range of 18% to 26% in August to 25% to 47% in September. Carriers shipping out of Europe are regaining ground considerably faster than those loading in Asia.
Doing more with fewer ships
One effect rarely makes the headlines: shortening the route lets a carrier keep the same weekly frequency with fewer ships. Each vessel completes more round trips in the same amount of time, freeing up tonnage without the service losing coverage.
That freed-up tonnage doesn’t sit idle. It moves to other routes or stays ready to absorb a demand spike, and in a market with more available supply, that tends to push freight rates down, especially if the trend holds for several months.
Who’s seeing the game change
If your cargo moves through Algeciras, Valencia or Barcelona, in the Mediterranean, it’s already gaining transit days and more predictability than cargo depending on Rotterdam or Hamburg, in northern Europe, where recovery still hasn’t passed 27%. For a Colombian importer transshipping Asian goods through a Mediterranean hub before reaching Cartagena or Buenaventura, that 30-point gap already shows up as less inventory time in transit.
Shippers moving Indian cargo to the US East Coast are capturing the gain too, with that 10-to-14-day cut in transit time to Savannah. Kevin Price, president of Georgia Ports, welcomed the improvement because it shortens delivery and reduces what importers pay in storage. Flavio Batista, commercial director for the Georgia ports authority, went further, saying carriers that bet on diversifying production toward Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent are now cashing in on that bet, with shorter routes and more predictable supply chains.
Cargo that hasn’t seen the same relief is whatever depends on services still anchored to northern Europe, where the Suez share sits at 27%, or on itineraries where carriers keep prioritizing security over speed. That cargo keeps paying, in days and in fuel, for the detour around the Cape of Good Hope.
Why it’s too early to call this normal
73% of Asia-Europe capacity is still avoiding the Suez Canal. Every carrier is deciding service by service, based on direction, cargo type and risk exposure, with no single standard applying across the board. New tensions in Bab el-Mandeb are adding to the picture right now, along with calls to reinforce naval presence in the area, a factor that could slow or reverse the trend as quickly as it started.
If the trend holds, shorter distances should keep freeing up capacity and lowering fuel consumption, two variables that eventually feed into freight rates. But the market has learned, since the Red Sea crisis began, that none of this moves in a straight line. At Fenix we track each service closely before translating any of this into how we plan our clients’ shipments.
Does your cargo cross the Red Sea or transit through Suez at any point in its route? Get a quote from Fenix and get a reading based on today’s market, not last month’s.
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