Oil and freight rates: what Hormuz means for your cargo

In March 2026, oil prices jumped more than 60% in a single month, the largest monthly gain on record, driven by geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. Eight months later, with tensions still running high, a barrel of oil remains at levels that looked impossible a year ago. In early October, Brent (the global benchmark price) was hovering around $120. In recent weeks, tensions have flared up again.

We are not trying to alarm anyone, but we do not want the situation to catch you off guard. So let’s go step by step through what has happened and what could come next.

What do we know so far?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula. About 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through it. Since the war in the Middle East began in February, almost no ships have been crossing normally. That explains the jump in oil prices, and everything that follows.

Oil and freight rates: why moving crude is now so expensive

When Hormuz closes, fewer oil tankers are available. The ones that manage to get crude out of the area do it through ship-to-ship transfers and longer voyages, which keeps them busy for much longer. On top of that, many avoid the area because of the risk and the high cost of insurance. With fewer ships available, the few left charge far more.

According to the International Energy Agency, in mid-October shipping crude from the Gulf to Asia cost more than $37 a barrel in transport alone, over five times the pre-war level. For tanker owners, that is great business: their average daily earnings topped $500,000 in early October, ten times the 2025 average. The ones footing the bill are the oil companies that charter those ships. TotalEnergies, for example, went from paying $2 or $3 a barrel in freight to around $25.

How does this affect your freight?

Here is the link between oil and freight rates: container ships do not carry oil, but they do burn it, since their fuel comes from crude. And that fuel has nearly doubled so far in 2026, from $475 a ton in January to around $960 in October.

Carriers are not willing to absorb that cost, so they pass it on to customers through surcharges: extra charges per container on top of the base freight rate. There are fuel surcharges, emergency surcharges, war risk surcharges and many more, and they depend not only on the destination country but also on the route the cargo takes.

A little-known risk: your container at another port

Some carriers reserve the right to leave your container at the nearest available port to its destination, which may be far from where you actually need it. If that happens, moving the cargo from there to its final destination is on you. It has been seen mostly on cargo to or from the Middle East, but it is worth asking before you ship. At least now you know.

Costs kept rising even during the “calm”

In recent weeks, no attacks between the United States and Iran were reported, and yet tanker freight rates and marine fuel stayed at their highs. The strait remained blocked, at times partially, but that was enough to keep rates up.

This matters for what comes next: the real problem does not depend on attacks, but on Hormuz staying closed. And not only Hormuz. The Red Sea and the Suez Canal are also affected, over fears of attacks by the Houthis, an armed group in Yemen allied with Iran. That is why many ships sail around the Cape of Good Hope, at the southern tip of Africa, adding 10 to 14 days to the trip.

What happened on November 3, 2026

Just hours before the midterm elections, the United States struck an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz, the first attack in months according to reports. It came after a missile was fired at one of its aircraft. Iran responded that any new attack will be answered without geographic limits.

At the same time, Qatari mediators are working on a deal to reopen the strait. In other words, there is negotiation and threat at the same time, and it is not clear which way the balance will tip.

Possible scenarios (speculation)

Everything that follows is speculation, not a forecast. These are hypotheses to think through ahead of time.

Scenario 1: the barrel keeps climbing

If Hormuz stays closed and tensions escalate, crude would get even more expensive. Back in July, Goldman Sachs warned that Brent could top $120 in the last quarter of 2026 with Hormuz disrupted, and in early October it was hovering right around that level. Barclays, for its part, said that if the blockade dragged on for three more months, the price could test $150. All of this would push surcharges higher and could even force carriers to change the discharge port.

Scenario 2: the barrel stays expensive

Neither open war nor a solution. According to a July note, Goldman estimated Brent could average about $100 for all of 2027 if Hormuz remains affected. In that case, high freight rates and surcharges would stop being news and become a fixed cost you need to factor in whenever you want to move cargo.

Scenario 3: a deal is reached

It is not impossible, but today it is not the most likely scenario, so it is not wise to base decisions on it. And even if it happened, crude would fall much faster than freight. It is not ill will: ships are out of position and routes are inefficient. Even with a deal, global trade would need time to get back in order, and nobody knows how long that could take. Do not expect surcharges to vanish overnight, even if you see oil prices drop.

No panic, but stay alert

These scenarios do not call for rushed decisions. You do not need to overhaul your whole operation over one news story, but it is best to be ready to react.

Your cargo will not wait for things to go back to normal. Fenix Global Cargo follows these movements closely every day so you do not have to. You do not have to figure this out alone: we handle the hard part, which is quoting clearly, anticipating surcharges and planning your operation with a healthy margin.

If you have cargo about to ship, or already on its way, get a quote from us.

Get a quote on WhatsApp

Sources

Hormuz, oil and freight rates: what is happening and which scenarios your cargo could face