The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is generating a new wave of disruptions in global trade. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important energy and maritime routes in the world, has caused a significant rise in oil prices, massive shipping route diversions and growing pressure on the global container market.

At the same time, the United States is considering temporarily easing some sanctions on Russian oil in an attempt to contain rising energy prices. However, while energy markets seek stability, global logistics chains are facing delays, port congestion and higher transportation costs.

Massive shipping route diversions

One of the most visible effects on global logistics has been the massive increase in shipping route diversions.
Data from logistics analytics platforms shows that ocean freight diversions have increased by more than 360%, rising from about 218 daily diversions to more than 1,000. More than 2,300 diversions were recorded in a single day, the highest level ever observed in the region.

This shift in routes is redirecting vessels to other ports in the Gulf and South Asia, including terminals in the United Arab Emirates, Oman and India. However, this logistical reconfiguration is also creating new bottlenecks. Some ports receiving redirected traffic are already experiencing significant increases in congestion and waiting times for vessel arrivals and departures.

Risk of container shortages and logistics congestion

The abrupt change in routes and disruption of maritime flow is beginning to generate pressure in the container market. When ships are delayed, diverted or waiting for operational instructions, containers also accumulate in certain regions. This can create imbalances between supply and demand for logistics equipment across different markets.

In addition, some shipping lines have suspended bookings to certain Gulf destinations due to operational and security restrictions, further reducing the capacity available for international shipping. This scenario increases the risk of container shortages in certain trade corridors and contributes to longer transit times.

Temporary easing of sanctions on Russian oil

Faced with rising energy prices and pressure on global markets, the United States is considering temporarily easing some sanctions on Russian oil. The measure aims to increase global crude supply and reduce the upward pressure generated by tensions in the Middle East. Several reports indicate that this decision could remain in place until the situation surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes.
Although this decision focuses on energy markets, its indirect objective is to limit the impact of rising oil prices on the global economy and on transportation costs.

Logistics outlook remains uncertain

The following section contains speculative analysis based on the facts described above. These interpretations do not represent confirmed information or definitive predictions and should only be understood as potential scenarios derived from the current situation.

If tensions in the region continue, logistical impacts could persist for several weeks or months. Route diversions, port congestion and rising energy costs may continue to pressure international trade. In that context, logistics planning, route diversification and continuous monitoring of geopolitical developments become increasingly important for companies that depend on international maritime transport.

International maritime trade enters a new phase of tension following the reciprocal imposition of port tariffs between the United States and China. The measures, activated on October 14, mark a turning point in the logistical rivalry between both powers, with operational, financial, and geopolitical implications that could extend to countries like Colombia, which is highly dependent on ocean transport.

United States activates tariffs on vessels linked to China

The United States has activated a new port tariff regime targeting vessels owned, operated, or built by Chinese companies, as part of an offensive to limit Beijing’s influence in the global maritime industry. The regulation requires shipowners to certify advance payment of the tariffs through the official Pay.gov portal before receiving authorization to enter or unload at U.S. ports.

The measure was justified by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), citing China’s “structural dominance” in shipbuilding, which accounts for nearly 25% of the global fleet. In contrast, the U.S. built fewer than ten merchant vessels in 2024.

According to BIMCO, up to 35% of bulk carriers, tankers, and container ships could be affected, representing 44% of the combined capacity of those fleets. However, a limited impact on freight rates is expected, as major shipping companies are reorganizing their fleets and charter contracts to avoid the costs. Cosco Shipping and OOCL are among the most exposed, with estimated cumulative tariffs of up to US$3.24 billion by 2026, although several companies have stated they will not pass these costs on to customers.

Colombia: strategic routes and diplomatic pressure

Although not directly involved in the conflict, Colombia may face logistical, commercial, and diplomatic impacts from this escalation. Its geographic position and reliance on maritime trade make it vulnerable to secondary effects:

• Buenaventura, Colombia’s main Pacific port, is linked to the new maritime route with China via Shanghai and Chancay (Peru). If U.S. restrictions intensify, port calls in Colombia could be affected, especially if sanctioned vessels or Cosco-chartered ships are involved.
• The Colombian-American Chamber of Commerce warned that diplomatic confrontation with the U.S. could have direct economic consequences. While new routes with China are seen as commercial progress, they may also strain relations with Washington.
• Colombian exporters are already under pressure: the 10% tariff imposed by the U.S. led to a 13.7% drop in exports in August. If maritime restrictions are added, logistics costs could rise further.

Shipping lines like Seaboard Marine and King Ocean, which operate in Colombia and rely on Chinese-built vessels, may face operational restrictions or increased costs if U.S. port controls intensify.

Beyond tariffs: logistical control and strategic rivalry:

This exchange of measures represents a dispute over control of global supply chains, access to strategic ports, and technological sovereignty in the maritime sector. In a context where over 80% of global trade depends on ocean transport, the repercussions could be felt across the global economy.

Sources

• EE.UU. escala ofensiva y esta semana impondrá gravámenes a buques vinculados con China – MundoMarítimo
• China impone gravámenes portuarios a buques con capital estadounidense y sanciona al astillero surcoreano Hanwha Ocean – MundoMarítimo
• Colombia abrió ruta marítima comercial con China – El Nacional
• Exportaciones de Colombia a Estados Unidos cayeron 13,7 % en agosto – El Tiempo
• Impacto de gravámenes de EE.UU. en navieras – HT Line
• Colombia abre ruta marítima comercial con China – DW
• Colombia abre ruta marítima comercial con China en medio de tensiones – CRHoy
• Impacto del gravamen de EE.UU. en buques ligados a China – Logística360