Tariffs in the U.S.: Legal and Logistical Uncertainty Shakes International Trade

Sun, 30 Jul 2023 01:24:16 +0000

Growing uncertainty in international trade is being fueled both by new trade investigations and by recent court decisions in the United States. On one hand, the Trump administration continues to pursue probes into sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and lumber, which could lead to the imposition of new tariffs in the short term.

On the other hand, independently, the Federal Court of Appeals ruled that certain duties applied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceed the authority granted to the president by Congress. Although the ruling does not affect all existing tariffs, it opens a legal front that could trigger judicial disputes and add more pressure to an already unstable environment for importers and logistics operators.

Trade tensions and immediate effects

Trade investigations into sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and lumber could result in new tariffs.
Relations with China remain tense, with ongoing negotiations following the extension of 30% tariffs on exports.
Some tariffs on Mexico and Canada, particularly those related to fentanyl, were declared illegal; however, duties on steel, aluminum, and auto parts, as well as penalties imposed on India and Brazil, remain in place and were not affected by the court’s decision.

Ocean freight in free fall

Since July, spot rates between Asia and the United States have dropped by 60% to 70%, after a peak of advance shipments that sought to get ahead of the expiration of certain tariffs. The Baltic Freightos Index shows historic lows on key routes such as Asia–West Coast and Asia–East Coast.
Adding to this trend are reroutings through the Red Sea and itinerary changes to avoid new U.S. port tariffs expected in October. Although some indices, such as the SCFI in the Pacific, have seen slight rebounds, analysts warn this is likely a temporary phenomenon ahead of China’s Golden Week.

E-commerce and the end of “minimis”

The suspension of the de minimis exemption for Chinese imports has reduced B2C shipments to the United States by up to 50%. However, China’s total export volume continues to grow, with a clear shift toward Europe and the United Kingdom.
This shift has doubled the value of e-commerce imports in those markets and reignited the debate over eliminating their own tax exemptions—potentially redefining competition between local retailers and Chinese platforms.

Air freight: adjusting cargo capacity

While ocean transport slows down, airfreight rates to North America have risen by 2%, reaching $5.57 per kilo. This increase reflects a reallocation of cargo capacity across regions, in an effort to balance supply and demand amid regulatory changes and trade tensions.

Conclusión

Global trade is in a phase where every political or legal decision has immediate repercussions on supply chains. For importers, shipping lines, and logistics operators, adaptability and strategic planning will be critical to navigating this unstable landscape.

La entrada Tariffs in the U.S.: Legal and Logistical Uncertainty Shakes International Trade se publicó primero en Fenix.

2026 Outlook: Long-term Ocean Freight Rates Set to Drop

Fri, 21 Jul 2023 01:30:31 +0000

The global container shipping market is showing clear signs of adjustment. After several years of rate increases driven by inflation, logistical disruptions, and international trade tensions, forecasts indicate that contractual freight rates could decline significantly in 2026.

A Shift in Market Balance

In recent months, key industry indicators have shown a mild slowdown, suggesting that negotiating power may gradually return to cargo owners (BCOs) after a long period in which shipping lines dictated contract conditions.
Several factors are driving this change, including the normalization of routes affected by the Red Sea conflict, the easing of global inflationary pressures, and the decline in front-loading that characterized late 2024 and early 2025.

Rate and Contract Outlook

Recent market analyses indicate that long-term freight contracts for 2026 could see a considerable drop in average rates, although still remaining above pre-pandemic levels.
This suggests that the industry is entering a phase of adjustment rather than a price collapse.
The balance between supply and demand will be decisive. When vessel space is tight, carriers can impose higher rates and stricter terms. However, in an oversupply scenario, shippers and forwarders regain leverage to negotiate better rates, payment terms, and service quality.

Beyond Price: Resilience and Strategy

Logistics risk management remains a core pillar of sustainable operations. While lower freight rates may provide short-term relief, operational stability, supplier diversification, and supply chain resilience continue to be key drivers of long-term competitiveness.

La entrada 2026 Outlook: Long-term Ocean Freight Rates Set to Drop se publicó primero en Fenix.

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