The Panama Canal made two different decisions this week, and it’s worth not mixing them up. On one hand, it applied 2026’s first transit restriction due to drought. On the other, it decided to hold the draft at 48 feet instead of reducing it as scheduled. One tightens, the other offers some relief. Both respond to the same underlying cause: the lack of water in the basin that feeds the interoceanic waterway.

The year’s first transit restriction

Since September 3, the Canal has cut its average from 36 to 34 daily vessel transits. It’s the first time this has happened in 2026. The closest precedent is the 2023 water crisis, when restrictions limited transits to just 22 vessels a day. That same Thursday, 99 vessels were lined up to cross. Of those, 94 had reservations and 26 were neopanamax, the larger-draft vessels that use the expanded locks opened in 2016.

The specific measure cut daily slots in the neopanamax locks from 10 to 9, and in the panamax locks from 26 to 25. Starting September 15, total daily transits will drop further, to 32.

Why this is happening

The Canal draws water from the artificial lakes Gatún and Alhajuela. That same watershed also supplies water to half of Panama’s population. Between May and August, the basin recorded a 34 % rainfall deficit, according to official data, linked to the El Niño phenomenon. Canal administration has already warned the situation could worsen. That would happen if El Niño strengthens and extends into Panama’s dry season, between January and April.

The draft, on the other hand, is holding for now

Here’s the part that does bring some relief. Draft is the depth of a vessel’s submerged portion, and it determines how much cargo it can carry without compromising safe transit. It was cut to 48 feet on September 2, the second of five scheduled reductions. But the next cut, to 47.5 feet, had been planned for October 1. It’s now postponed “until further notice,” according to the Panama Canal Authority’s (ACP) confirmation on September 5.

Holding the draft at 48 feet gives neopanamax vessel operators more certainty. They can plan their operations without having to cut cargo right away. The ACP clarified it will keep evaluating Gatún Lake’s levels and rainfall projections before deciding whether to resume the original schedule.

The number that reveals another side of the problem

The auction price for non-reserved vessel slots averaged USD 55,000 earlier this year. Today it exceeds USD 5 million.

That jump isn’t explained by drought alone. According to analysts cited by EFE, the cause is the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. It’s pushing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers to reroute through the Americas-Asia corridor. Passing through Panama guarantees they arrive on time, and they’re willing to pay extraordinary sums for a non-reserved slot to secure it.

Why this affects Colombia too

The Panama Canal mainly serves three routes: U.S. East Coast-Asia, U.S. East Coast-South America’s west coast, and Europe-South America’s west coast. Buenaventura, Colombia’s main Pacific port, sits right on that second route. Any cargo moving between the U.S. East Coast and Buenaventura, whether import or export, depends directly on the Canal operating normally.

Fewer daily transits mean more competition for the same passage space. That can translate into longer wait times for vessels serving that route. In the worst case, carriers adjust schedules or prioritize other markets with higher margins, like the one gas carriers fleeing the Hormuz crisis are paying today. As we already explained when analyzing South America freight rates this week, the region is already feeling pressure from several fronts at once. The Panama Canal is one of the most direct for cargo entering or leaving through Colombia’s Pacific coast.

At Fenix, we track every adjustment the ACP announces closely, because a restriction in Panama can reorder, in a matter of days, the schedules connecting Colombia to its main trading partners.

Sources

• Infobae — The Panama Canal applies 2026’s first transit restriction due to drought (Spanish)
• Destino Panamá — The Panama Canal holds the draft at 48 feet for Neopanamax vessels and postpones reduction (Spanish)