Two bottlenecks under increasing tension

The situation in the Middle East has escalated to a point where two of the most critical maritime routes for global trade are under simultaneous threat: the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. On one hand, tensions between the United States and Iran have increased risks around Hormuz, including warnings of potential attacks on energy infrastructure and retaliation in the region. On the other hand, the Houthis have threatened to block passage through Bab el-Mandeb for vessels linked to the United States and Israel. Both corridors are essential for the transit of oil and goods. Any disruption in their operation directly impacts the continuity of international maritime trade.

Route reconfiguration and pressure on capacity

In response to this environment, shipping lines have begun evaluating operational alternatives. This includes route deviations to avoid risk zones, resulting in longer journeys and greater use of resources. These changes generate direct pressure on global logistics capacity. As vessels remain longer in transit, equipment availability decreases, affecting container rotation and creating imbalances across different markets. The result is a chain of effects impacting both planning and execution of logistics operations.

Oil surge and rising logistics costs

Tensions in the region have driven oil prices upward, a key factor for maritime transport. Since fuel represents a significant portion of operational costs, any increase directly translates into higher rates. This is reflected in rising surcharges, freight adjustments, and increased pressure on supply chains. As a result, the cost of moving goods increases, affecting both imports and exports.

Container shortages and operational disruptions

Changes in routes and extended transit times are affecting the normal flow of containers. Shipping lines have warned about possible disruptions in equipment availability due to these operational adjustments. This increases the risk of shortages in certain markets, difficulties in repositioning containers, and congestion at strategic points. The uneven redistribution of capacity adds complexity to the global supply chain.

Extended transit times and uncertainty

Current conditions are also extending transit times. Deviations, security measures, and operational changes are causing delays that directly impact logistics planning. This situation forces companies to adapt to a less predictable environment, where delivery times may vary and inventory management becomes more complex.

Direct impact on export costs

The increase in logistics costs, along with oil volatility, directly impacts the final price of exports. Companies face higher transportation costs, reducing margins and affecting competitiveness in international markets. In this context, operational efficiency and adaptability become key factors in maintaining business continuity.

The following analysis corresponds to interpretations based on available information and recent developments. It does not constitute a confirmed fact and should not be interpreted as a definitive prediction.

If tensions in Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb persist or escalate, logistics costs are likely to continue increasing, driven by fuel prices and operational adjustments on key maritime routes. Likewise, extended transit times could intensify imbalances in container availability. If the flow of Russian oil helps stabilize energy supply, some moderation in prices could be observed. However, operational uncertainty would remain a critical factor in global logistics.

The current context requires more strategic logistics management. The combination of risks on key routes, rising costs, and potential disruptions forces companies to strengthen their response capacity. Having visibility, forward planning, and logistics alternatives becomes essential to mitigate impacts and ensure operational continuity.

The escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran has generated strong tensions in energy and financial markets. Economists and analysts warn that this situation could lead to a scenario of global stagflation, a combination of weak economic growth, high inflation, and deterioration in employment.

The increase in oil prices and uncertainty in energy markets are directly impacting international trade. For global logistics, these factors can translate into higher operating costs, pressure on exports, and new tensions in the availability of equipment and transportation.

Impact on international trade and exports

Rising energy costs do not only affect transportation. They also impact production costs and the prices of goods traded globally.

In this context, several analyses warn that increasing energy costs may make exports more expensive, especially in sectors that are highly dependent on transportation or energy. This may create additional pressure on international trade at a time already marked by economic uncertainty. At the same time, financial markets have reacted with volatility amid fears that the energy shock may persist and affect global economic growth.

Risk of container shortages in a tense logistics environment

Uncertainty in energy and commercial markets can also affect the availability of logistics equipment. When international trade faces abrupt cost increases and changes in routes or trade flows, the global container balance may be altered. This could result in greater pressure on equipment availability in certain regions and generate delays in supply chains.

This type of logistics imbalance has already been observed in previous global trade crises, when economic volatility changes transportation demand and alters trade flows.

Relief of sanctions on Russian oil and energy reconfiguration

Amid the energy crisis generated by the conflict in the Middle East, some analyses indicate that energy markets are observing changes in the global oil trade. Among them is the easing of restrictions that had limited the commercialization of Russian oil, which could temporarily alter international energy flows.
These movements in the energy market may modify trade routes and energy supply patterns, which in turn influence logistics costs and the dynamics of global trade.

Logistics scenario: possible effects on global trade

The following section contains speculative analysis based on the information from the cited news reports. These scenarios do not constitute confirmed facts and should not be interpreted as definitive predictions.

If energy tensions persist, international logistics chains could face several simultaneous challenges. Sustained increases in oil prices could continue raising maritime, land, and air transport costs, which would directly impact the cost of moving goods between continents. Likewise, changes in global energy flows could modify trade routes and generate adjustments in logistics planning for importers and exporters.

In a prolonged scenario of energy volatility, companies that depend on international trade could face higher logistics costs, greater uncertainty in transit times, and pressure on export margins.

Logistics and resilience in a context of global uncertainty

The current context reflects how geopolitical conflicts can quickly move into international trade through energy markets.
Rising oil prices, pressure on exports, and the possible imbalance in container availability are some of the factors that are beginning to generate concern in global logistics. In an environment of high economic volatility, logistics adaptability becomes key to maintaining supply chain continuity and reducing the impact of energy shocks on international trade.

During January and February 2026, cargo transportation in China is facing significant pressure. Companies importing from the country are reporting difficulties in securing trucks, containers, vessel space, and internal logistics services. This situation is not the result of an isolated event or an unexpected disruption, but rather a recurring phenomenon in the Chinese calendar: Chinese New Year, also known as the Spring Festival.

In 2026, the holiday falls on February 17, but its logistical effects begin several weeks earlier and extend beyond the official holiday period.

The Pre-Closure “Rush” and the Start of the Chunyun Period

In late January and early February, China enters the most intense phase ahead of Chinese New Year. This period coincides with the start of Chunyun, considered the largest human migration in the world, which officially begins in early February and lasts until mid-March.
Although Chunyun is primarily associated with passenger transportation, its impact on cargo logistics is direct. Millions of workers travel from industrial hubs back to their hometowns, significantly reducing labor availability in factories, road transport, and port operations.

An Impact That Extends Beyond the Holiday

Although Chinese New Year is celebrated on February 17, disruptions do not end on that date. The reactivation of factories, transport, and logistics operations is typically gradual. In many cases, full normalization can take several weeks and extend into March or even April.
During this phased return, bottlenecks, accumulated delays, and imbalances between supply and transport demand often persist.

Final Considerations for Importers

Current difficulties in cargo transportation from China are the result of a well-identified annual cycle, but they remain critical nonetheless. Advancing bookings, monitoring real-time availability, and evaluating logistics alternatives are key actions to reduce risk during this period.
Working with a logistics operator that understands these cycles and has regional visibility can make the difference between a manageable delay and a prolonged supply chain disruption.