The global container shipping market is showing clear signs of adjustment. After several years of rate increases driven by inflation, logistical disruptions, and international trade tensions, forecasts indicate that contractual freight rates could decline significantly in 2026.
A Shift in Market Balance
In recent months, key industry indicators have shown a mild slowdown, suggesting that negotiating power may gradually return to cargo owners (BCOs) after a long period in which shipping lines dictated contract conditions.
Several factors are driving this change, including the normalization of routes affected by the Red Sea conflict, the easing of global inflationary pressures, and the decline in front-loading that characterized late 2024 and early 2025.
Rate and Contract Outlook
Recent market analyses indicate that long-term freight contracts for 2026 could see a considerable drop in average rates, although still remaining above pre-pandemic levels.
This suggests that the industry is entering a phase of adjustment rather than a price collapse.
The balance between supply and demand will be decisive. When vessel space is tight, carriers can impose higher rates and stricter terms. However, in an oversupply scenario, shippers and forwarders regain leverage to negotiate better rates, payment terms, and service quality.
Beyond Price: Resilience and Strategy
Logistics risk management remains a core pillar of sustainable operations. While lower freight rates may provide short-term relief, operational stability, supplier diversification, and supply chain resilience continue to be key drivers of long-term competitiveness.
