Why ocean freight rates keep rising in 2026

If your ocean freight cost has gone up in recent months without a clear explanation from your agent, you’re not alone. In 2026, container prices no longer respond to supply and demand alone: geopolitical conflict, typhoon season, environmental regulation, and even how carriers reposition empty containers are all pushing rates upward at the same time. Here’s what’s really behind each increase.

Freight pricing is no longer just supply and demand

For years, ocean freight prices were explained mainly by available cargo volume versus carrier capacity. In 2026 that logic no longer holds on its own: geopolitical, climate, and regulatory factors are stacking up at the same time, each pushing rates in the same direction. Here are the six weighing most heavily this year.

1. The war in the Strait of Hormuz

Since late February 2026, the armed conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has left the Strait of Hormuz — the route for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas — practically paralyzed. According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, only 77 ships have crossed the strait since the war began, most of them part of the so-called “shadow fleet”: vessels operating outside traditional insurance and tracking systems.

The conflict has already spread to the Horn of Africa, where Yemen’s Houthis threaten ships crossing the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the gateway to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Since June 2026, carriers have raised spot rates by 5 % on the Asia-Pacific–Europe route because of this. No Colombian cargo passes directly through Hormuz, but the freight market reacts to global risk before a full closure even happens, and that unease spills over into other routes.

2. An unusually aggressive typhoon season in China

2026 has brought a string of typhoons that has hit China’s busiest foreign trade ports directly:

• Typhoon Bavi (July): the strongest of the season at the time, it forced the evacuation of more than 2.2 million people in Zhejiang and suspended operations at Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan.
• Typhoon Dolphin (August): left 2.4 million TEU of container shipping delayed across Asia, according to tracking firm Linerlytica.
• Typhoons Noul and Narra (August): added to the sequence, giving ports little time to fully recover between events.
• Typhoon Saudel (August 28): shut down Shanghai and Ningbo again, with vessels waiting up to 10 days to berth at the world’s two busiest ports.

According to Linerlytica, after Saudel, global port congestion kept 3.92 million TEU of fleet capacity immobilized, close to 11 % of the world total. Northern Asia accounts for 54 % of that congestion, with roughly 2.5 million TEU of ships waiting to berth. APL Logistics warned that even though Shanghai and Ningbo resumed operations, the backlog of vessels and cargo would keep causing schedule reliability issues for several weeks.

Every preventive shutdown follows the same pattern: containers miss their loading window, terminals get overwhelmed once they reopen, and carriers adjust schedules, skip port calls, or roll cargo over. That lag is felt weeks later across the rest of the world, including Latin America.

3. The tariff and port-fee standoff between China and the United States

Since October 2025, China has been charging a special port fee on vessels flagged, owned, or operated by U.S. entities, in direct response to surcharges the U.S. Trade Representative’s office (USTR) imposed on Chinese-built ships. The scheme is being phased in and will keep rising through 2028. This standoff between the world’s two largest economies creates uncertainty for carriers and redistributes cargo flows globally, which also indirectly pressures routes toward South America.

4. Why your container “pays” for another one’s empty trip

Asia exports far more than it imports. That imbalance forces carriers to send empty containers back to China, and that trip has a cost too.

Asian ports dispatch huge volumes of full containers to the Americas and Europe, but those markets don’t generate enough return cargo to fill them back up. The result: carriers need to reposition empty containers back to China, because that’s where the real export demand is.

That repositioning isn’t free. There’s a specific charge for it called the EIS (Equipment Imbalance Surcharge), which applies precisely when empty containers need to move from one place to another. Routes that import far more than they export — like most Latin American routes from Asia — see an EIS of between USD 100 and USD 400 per container. In practice, whoever imports ends up paying part of the “empty return trip” of the very container that brought their own cargo.

5. Carrier decarbonization is no longer optional

Environmental regulations for ocean shipping have stopped being a corporate pilot program and become a mandatory, across-the-board surcharge. Carriers pass these capital costs and emissions penalties on to importers through adjustments to bunker surcharges (BAF) and new environmental compliance fees, which are now a structural part of container costs.

6. What’s coming: peak season and the Panama Canal

Industry analysts expect rates to stay relatively stable in the second quarter, with a moderate 10 % to 20 % increase during the traditional third-quarter peak season. Typhoon-driven congestion is already reinforcing that pressure: Transpacific rates remain firm, while Asia-Europe is the exception, with rates falling for two consecutive months on weaker demand. At the same time, new container ship deliveries dropped to their lowest level in three years, keeping vessel availability tight and the charter market firm. On top of that, the Panama Canal Authority continues taking preventive measures over possible water-availability issues, including reduced daily transits and progressive draft restrictions.

What importers can do about it

• Weigh contract rates against spot rates: long-term contracts typically offer rates 10 % to 25 % lower than spot bookings, though they require volume commitments.
• Work with an agent who breaks down costs from the quote itself: BAF, EIS, and other surcharges should be clear from the start, not show up as a surprise on the final invoice.
• Book in advance: especially ahead of the third-quarter peak season, when capacity tightens first and prices rise afterward.

Understanding these factors doesn’t remove the volatility, but it does let you get ahead of it. At Fenix, that’s how we work with every client: a clear quote from the start, with no surcharges appearing halfway through.

Sources

• MundoMaritimo — Hormuz crisis keeps pressure on freight rates (Spanish)
• MundoMaritimo — Hormuz Strait closure reshapes 2026 shipping outlook (Spanish)
• Infobae — Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains reduced amid Middle East tension (Spanish)
• MundoMaritimo — Typhoon Dolphin forces suspension of operations at China’s main ports (Spanish)
• Trafi-log — Typhoon Saudel paralyzes the ports of Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan (Spanish)
• MundoMaritimo — Ships with a combined capacity of 2.5 million TEU wait to berth in northern Asia (Spanish)
• Smart Logistics — Ocean rate increases from China (Spanish)
• Suaid Global — Ocean freight surcharges explained 2026
• Datasur — China–Latam freight 2026: key facts and costs (Spanish)
• Suaid Global — Ocean freight rates 2026: FCL and LCL by route
• Venta Contenedores Marítimos — Ocean shipping: rates, congestion, and new routes in 2026 (Spanish)